No sooner had the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences handed out their Oscar statuettes on Sunday night than the drums started beating for the next awards season. Yes, that means predictions are being made about films that haven’t even been shot yet, much less released–I guess that’s why they call Hollywood “The Dream Factory.” While Oscar pundit David Poland acknowledges the absurdity of making any predictions at this point, he nonetheless is willing to hazard “just one guess” for next year’s race–and it’s an Oscar nomination for Johnny Depp as Sweeney Todd, the Demon Barber of Fleet Street.

“I believe now that Johnny Depp is a 95% bet to be nominated for Best Actor as the title character in SWEENEY TODD,” says Poland, “in a very, very crowded field of 2007 male movie performances . . . and an 80% chance to win.” Poland continues, “Word from the set about his performance–from multiple sources–is excellent. [. . .] Huge box office power [from the PIRATES movies] followed by an unexpected (though people have come to expect the unexpected from Depp) performance as the lead of a Grand Guignol opera . . . [would be] manna from heaven to Academy voters who are more than ready to deliver this guy an Oscar.”

Poland sees Johnny’s awards chances bolstered by his two previous Best Actor nominations and the fact that “he is seen as an artist by almost everyone.” Adds Poland, “The film can miss and Depp will still be nominated if he is any good at all. And it seems unlikely that he will be anything less than fantastic . . . which makes him the one clear frontrunner for 2007/8’s award season.”

Wow! Here’s one prediction we’d love to see come true. Thanks to emma for posting David Poland’s article on the News & Views forum . . . you can read his entire argument there, and early or not, it’s fascinating. –Part-Time Poet